Analysis and commentary from our team and global network on the geopolitical forces shaping investment, policy and law.
Marlow Global’s latest analysis examines how Trump’s threat to impose biting tariffs on US partners could reshape global trade. While China remains the primary target of protectionist measures, other major trading partners face significant pressure. Trump has threatened US neighb
Sodium-ion is shaking up the battery market. Swedish battery developer Northvolt has produced a ground-breaking sodium-ion battery that uses no critical minerals, challenging the dominance of traditional lithium batteries. Northvolt claims their batteries have the potential to di
Marlow Global’s new report, Green Ambitions and Raw Realities, warns that political instability and funding shortages for exploration and development of critical minerals will slow down the green transition The report warns that political instability and funding shortages for the
Amid the ongoing armed conflict in Sudan, a stream of incoming Sudanese migrants is placing Egypt’s infrastructure under increased pressure. The question now, is how Egypt’s economic, political and security landscape will fare. “The heavy influx of Sudanese migrants, the potentia
Southern Africa is littered with examples of governments falling for the rhetoric of resource nationalism and shooting themselves in the foot. It seems election season in Botswana is already in full swing. As negotiations between the government and De Beers about sales and long-t
Saudi Arabia’s industry and mineral resources ministry believes mining could soon constitute 10% of the region’s GDP BY SIMON WOLFE The Middle East is making moves on minerals. January’s Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh saw the announcement of a joint venture between Saudi soverei
Some have criticised the Phala Phala report for either exceeding the panel’s mandate or being wrong in law, or both. This misses the point BY PETER LEON Former UK prime minister Harold Wilson’s aphorism that “a week is a long time in politics” could not seem more apt following th
Big advocates of the transition to clean energy now face energy security issues and rising energy prices BY PETER LEON, ERNST MULLER AND TIHOMIR SVILANOVIC COP26, which took place in Glasgow in 2021, resulted in several ambitious pledges aimed at achieving net zero greenhouse gas
This week I had the pleasure of joining an IBA panel with Nankunda Katangaza, Jacqueline Musiitwa, Ndjodi Ndeunyema, and Angela Kariuki to discuss climate change and the ESG agenda in Africa from a people, business and legal perspective. Our panel, steered by Ernst Muller, consid
A sigh of relief as the UN-brokered humanitarian deal reopened Odesa’s port to allow Ukrainian grain through may have been premature. Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni appears to have arrived in Syria, one of Russia’s strongest allies. It was set to reach the Horn of Africa as part of
We are about to see another supercycle of economic diplomacy. Dominant funds in the Middle East and Norway are awash with cash and plenty of opportunities as the economic downturn hits hard. New research suggests the Gulf’s largest sovereign wealth funds have already been involve
Anton Mifsud-Bonnici, a member of the Marlow governance board, talks about business, investment and ESG within the context of the Russia and Ukraine conflict and the consequences on the human rights of affected citizens in a recent podcast. In his conversation with IHRB’s Salil T
Simon Wolfe has contributed to the very first issue of the ICALAA Report. The ICAL Alumni Association (ICALAA) is the alumni network of the International Commercial Arbitration Law (ICAL) Masters of Law (LLM) Program at Stockholm University. Simon’s chapter is about, Recent Devel
Environmental, social & governance (ESG) issues were top of the agenda at the first Saudi Arabian Future Minerals Forum earlier in January. In a year defined by shareholder and environmental activism as well as rising resource nationalism, the extractives sector is trying to forg
Report cards for Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema’s first 100 days are coming in thick and fast. Most agree that it is a mixed record. He has managed to restore the rule of law quickly, replaced the top military and police officials, clamped down on party cadres and reversed
At the time of writing last Monday, rebel forces were steadily advancing on Addis Ababa and nine factions have reportedly formed a political alliance to “push for a political transition in Ethiopia”. It looks like the game is up for Nobel peace prize laureate and Ethiopian Prime
Is this the end or the beginning of another Ethiopian tragedy? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insists that the “law enforcement operation” is over. U.S. diplomats, on the other hand, are reporting that Eritrean soldiers have crossed the border and are supporting the military’s efforts
Is this the end or the beginning of another Ethiopian tragedy? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insists that the “law enforcement operation” is over. U.S. diplomats, on the other hand, are reporting that Eritrean soldiers have crossed the border and are supporting the military’s efforts
The power and communications blackouts that followed Ethiopia’s bombing of Tigray’s regional capital, Mekelle, are an ominous sign that this conflict is far from over and risks spiralling into a full-blown civil war. The world is rightly focused on the humanitarian plight of the
As the world watches to see whether President Trump accepts the US election results, few have noticed thatcivil war is looming in Ethiopia, after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he was sending troops to the Tigray province. This imperils not only Africa’s second most pop
Zambia can choose its own luck this Friday 13th. It can pay euro bondholders the $42.5m interest coupon it owes, and so delay the inevitable moment that it fails to meet its financial commitments on $18bn debt, and kick the can down the road. Or it can refuse the bondholders’ con
The International Energy Agency warned this week in its 2020 World Energy Outlook that oil demand growth will slow to its lowest levels since the 1930s. The Paris-based agency predicted that after an unprecedented drop of 8% this year due to the pandemic, it will take until 2023
China’s Xi Jinping meets with Zambia’s President Edgar Chagwa Lungu in Beijing, China, on 30 March 2015 © REUTERS/Feng Li/Pool The Euro bondholders’ refusal last week to accept the Zambian government’s new repayment terms for its $3 billion bonds should come as no surprise. The G
Is America okay? Observers abroad have asked this question for four years with increasing alarm. Amid fires, floods, and plagues at home, the United States has retreated from the world stage, emerging for dinner with dictators and the occasional military parade. The Trump adminis
Across the continent, democracies are in need of help — including from investors — to stave off abuses of power Governments across Africa have been overstepping their authority in plain sight — either through the constitutional process or authoritarian rule. Covid-19 is giving th
Aerial view of the Baḥr Al-Jabal (Mountain Nile) and Juba, South Sudan © Frontpage/Shutterstock.com For the first time in decades, Sudan is on a path to peace and democracy, turning the fall of a dictatorial regime into a reckoning with entrenched societal fissures and the overha
The future of Zambia’s economy hangs in the balance as a degradation in the business environment and the impacts of COVID-19 come to a head. In a recent conversation with Trevor Simumba, Senior International Development Economist, and Oliver Saasa, Professor of International Econ
With so many urgent challenges in Africa, it is easy to understand why the international community has failed to give Zambia much attention. The lack of interest is a mistake. Especially now. Zambia’s status as one of the most prolific cobalt and copper producers should interest
Bobi Wine at a news conference in Kampala in June 2020 © Abubaker Lubowa/Reuters Covid-19 has served up an intoxicating opportunity for populist politicians everywhere. While their handling of the health crisis has generally been poor, they are using the pandemic to erode democra
Today’s tensions surrounding Zambia’s mines cannot be blamed solely on their new owners or previous administrations. The current government is creating a climate where the mines are struggling to thrive. The government has imposed an impossible fiscal regime, withheld $1.6bn in u
SHAMELESS OVERREACH BY THE GOVERNMENT IS HAVING REAL-WORLD EFFECTS ON BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT Zambia has a long tradition of the rule of law, a clear separation of powers and an effective and responsible judiciary. So it is worrying that it is slipping down the World Justice Proj
In February, when Judge President Healey Potani announced the Malawian Constitutional Court’s unanimous decision to nullify the incumbent’s re-election, the courtroom erupted with cheers. Once the news had spread, youth celebrated in the streets of the capital Lilongwe, honking c
The Zambian government is panicking. Despite a recent rally, the pandemic has accelerated the dramatic fall in copper prices, leading to a collapse in the value of Zambia Kwacha and a depletion of the country’s foreign currency reserves. It is struggling to service its $11bn debt
In recent years several countries have seen a tightening of foreign direct investment regulations, giving governments more discretion when scrutinising deals and deciding whether to block or even reverse acquisitions on the grounds of national security. The coronavirus pandemic,
A recent deluge of videos on social media depicting evictions and acts of horrible mistreatment of Africans living in Guangzhou, China has sparked outrage among many and put a strain on relations with Beijing. While this anger is legitimate and China immediately owes Africa answe
As Saudi Arabia’s launch of an oil price war over the weekend has once again demonstrated, the geopolitical developments of this region can impact the rest of the world overnight. In addition to the impact on the global economy that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s fall out will have (t
Russian lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, whose death in 2009 spurred the 2012 ‘Sergei Magnitsky Rule of Law Accountability Act’ in the United States. The International Bar Association’s Human Rights Institute last week released a report on the use of targeted sanctions to protect journal
The Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul connecting Europe and Asia. The 20th-century Turkish poet Nazim Hikmet wrote a famous line about Turkey “charging out of Asia and stretching like a mare’s head into the Mediterranean.” Capturing Turkey’s unique transcontinental location, the line
Heads of state attend the NATO Summit in London, 4 December 2019 © Ludovic Marin/Pool via REUTERS This year marks the 70th anniversary of NATO. With Turkey coming under fire for purchasing a Russian defence system and recent disagreement regarding Kurdish militias, we reflect on
The UK Jurisdiction Taskforce (UKJT), comprising leading judges, barristers and academics, has provided welcome clarification regarding the ever-evolving rules for safeguarding assets like cryptocurrencies and other digital tokens. In a 64-page statement released this month, thre
Thousands of protestors gather outside the Sudan army HQ in April 2019 © AFP Sudan has now the opportunity to get away from conflicts and move forward for a brighter future. It is difficult to think of a country more recently mired by tragedy than Sudan. As a result of the wars w
A new energy future portends at least two guarantees: that polluting, non-renewable fuels will be phased out, and replaced by cleaner, renewable alternatives. That much is certain, and the reasons why ought not need an explanation at this point. Still unclear, though, are the ans
The operation of a mine in a foreign country is one of the most complex and risk fraught activities that an investor can become involved in. From long-range projections to super cycles and crashes in mineral prices, to the dizzyingly complex credit arrangements and compliance wit
Bobi Wine performs for the first time after being released from jail in November 2018 © AFP I met a girl who sang the blues And I asked her for some happy news But she just smiled and turned away I went down to the sacred store Where I’d heard the music years before But...
With the possible exception of North Korea and Syria, there are fewer countries in the world with worse brand reputations than Sudan. Since the late nineties, the country has been synonymous with the genocide and humanitarian crisis in Darfur, which some sources say has claimed u
Since sweeping to power in 2015, President of Tanzania John Magufuli has embarked on an ambitious campaign to consolidate his authority, which in his view means testing the limits of the law by cracking down sharply on media, opposition, and reigning in foreign investors. The int
